What are your opinion(s) of gambling strategies?
For some games (baccarat, roulette) that are based on pure luck, it seems fairly certain that betting on a winning strategy is rather slightly foolish.
For games like craps and of course, blackjack, where strategies are evolved and make statistical sense (some combinations in craps are more likely than others), gaming software (such as beatonlinecasino.com) seem to hold the promise of beating the odds in the long term.
Can anyone give an analysis? Your help is much appreciated. (You might be helping to fight an unhealthy impulse.)

Posted: Feb 9, 2004 2:51pm
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Or could anyone direct me to a site that deals with helping would be smart alecks trying to beat the old casinos at their own game?

The only way to make money from gambling is to own a casino.

Your question is extremely open-ended and hardly seems magic related.

However, given that you know exactly how the game operates (i.e., how many decks [real or virtual] are being used, when the decks are replaced, exactly what rules are being used, etc.) then it possible in theory to design any number of strategies that will allow you to improve your gaming performance (this statement is generally applicable to any game) over a basic strategy that ignores this information. Some of these strategies might even theoretically allow you to beat the casino in the long run.

Whether or not the strategies are easy to use in practice and in real time is another question.

I also suspect that the average person is completely unqualified to design or properly understand / correctly use a system.

Let's take blackjack:
- The dealer has to hit even if she has a winning hand with 16. She has the highest chance to bust when her open card is 6 or lower.
- The player has the higher chance to win when he has a hand of 12 or above, and the dealer has an open card of 6 or lower.
The gray zone I think is when the player has a hand lower than 12, then the dealer's hand has a high chance of winning without hitting. Does this mean that the player who plays strictly according to the above rules, with the aid of computer betting program running in real time, stand a chance to accumulate small but steady winnings?
One of the reasons I started on this line of inquiry is that I noticed my Dad's attitude when he sees effects with stacked or memorized decks. He's the kind who will challenge me to go ahead and prove it in a casino. I don't mean he really wants me to lose money, but it may be a macho kind of thing with him.

Bumper sticker: "Gambling is a stupidity tax on those who failed math."

Maybe a little harsh, but, alas, true. There is no casino game, to my knowledge, as presently played in any commercial casino, online or otherwise, where the long terms odds of winning favor the customer. There is no system--computer or otherwise-- for any game that will improve the customer's odds enough to actually win money in the long run. Casinos, unfortunately, are not charities, they are businesses. They have mathematicians figure out exactly how to set the rules--and the betting limits-- so that the house always has the edge.

That said, there are ways to improve one's strategies so that the customer does not lose as much in the long run.

But then, I had an uncle who used to like to gamble and would brag how he once went to Vegas in a $20,000 car, but came back in a $150,000 bus.

Jack Shalom

I don't have the details at hand (I read about this a few months ago and do not recall the reference off hand), but my understanding is that there is actually one video poker game currently in use that does give the player a slight edge provided that the player always bets the maximum.

The very minor loss the casino might suffer at the expense of these players is more than offset by the money the casino takes from those who are not aware of the "bet the maximum" strategy, or from those playing the other styles of video poker machines.

Wow, lots of misinformation in this thread. For starters, there should be a distinction made between games played against the house and games played against other players, with the house acting as referee. In the latter case, money certainly can be made gambling, and people do it professionally, e.g. sports betting or poker. However, it is not easy to do; almost everyone thinks that he is an above average poker player. In the former case, there ARE (contrary to above posts) games that offer payouts to the advantage of the customer, with optimal play. Specifically, I'm talking about blackjack and many progressive video poker games. Playing video poker flawlessly, however, takes some work. The correct plays are often counter-intuitive. Playing blackjack well enough to make money requires work, a substantial bankroll, and the ability to not appear as if you know what you're doing, assuming you become good enough to make money at it. It is possible. People do it. Video poker also DOES (to reiterate) offer a payback scale of over 100%. Casinos can afford to do this because the vast majority of people play video poker and blackjack poorly. It is NOT the case that every against-the-casino game is mathematically rigged against the player. Most players will lose, however, because they play poorly, or, in the case of blackjack, play above the limit at which they can ride out the swings (insufficient bankroll). Games such as craps, roulette, keno, etc. offer no mathematical edge to the player. Your bets are disadvantageous or neutral. You can minimize your disadvantage, but those games are inherent long-term losers. Your best bet, to make money gambling, is probably to study poker. Many resources in print and on the net. Tough to overcome the rake, but possible. Online poker sites are useful. They take less money from the pot than most bricks and mortar casinos, and the competition is probably a bit easier, but maybe not for long. You might want to check out "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky.

And don't forget, casinos don't get their money by gambling - they get it by earning it!

I just did a show in Holland. I went to the casino.
I always look where are the numbers that repeat in the roulette table.
11, 3 and 14 were the wining numbers.
I got 2000 Euros after 11 minutes
I left very fast.
Lior

I second this, I've been playing for more than a year now and winning more than 2 big bets per 100 hands. Getting some of the rake back also helps. If anyone is interested in getting 10% of their rake back please let me know.

Thanks,

Saiyan

Lobowolf's post is right on target. (Though next time, insert some paragraph breaks to make reading such a large post easier.)

To add to his excellence post, there are several varieties of progressive video poker machines that offer potential payback percentages in excess of 100%. It should be noted however, that in addition to finding one of these machines (they're uncommon), and playing a winning strategy (very difficult), you must be playing a machine that has exceeded a certain value on the progressive meter. For instance, a quarter machine might need to have reached a value of around $2100 to make it profitable to even begin playing. Lastly, you'll need a sufficiently large bankroll to keep you alive while you pursue the progressive jackpot.

It's also important to realize that as these progressive meters increase (perhaps even as you are playing) that your strategy must evolve to keep the target (the royal) in sight. Basically, your strategy will get more aggresive as the meter increases. But be careful, an aggressive strategy, while more likely to get you the royal, also comes with increased fluctuation, and therefore more risk of going broke if your bankroll can't handle the increase.

It should also be noted that there are a few non-progressive machines that have higher paybacks than progressives. Although rare, these machines sometimes have pay tables that will return over 100% to an expert player.

Also, it is worth recording that while there are no mathematical edges to be gotten at the craps or roulette tables, there are some physical methods that are capable of beating the game. In craps, controlled shots have won truckloads of money for skilled shooters and "visual prediction" is an extrememly difficult, but potentially workable method for beating roulette. Visual prediction involves timing the rotor speed and ball speed and calculating a segment for the ball to land. If you're accurate enough, and can get your bets down quickly enough, you may be able to make money doing this. My guess there isn't one person in a 100,000 that can actually pull it off though.

Jason