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tristanmagic Special user 533 Posts 
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I have a friend who has these brand new (still in sealed original wrapping) Tenyo Items
Devil’s disk Midas Machine Ultra Slice Wandering hole Are these rare or not? What is the current value of these? (he might be persuaded to sell these if the price is right) I hope to find a expert here who can answer these questions ;-) Thanks, Tristan |
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cyberdave03 Loyal user 287 Posts
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Probably the best way to gauge an optimal monetary value is to look at what the highest price on eBay is/was (though there is certainly market variation even there). I just bought a used Midas Machine for $28. Wandering hole sold last month for $51 (though I've seen it go for higher, its rep is tainted by stories of frequent malfunction). And Ultra Slice is currently selling (http://cgi.ebay.com/ULTRASLICE-Tenyo-Magic-/280688959229?_trksid=p5197.m7&_trkparms=algo%3DLVI%26itu%3DUCI%26otn%3D3%26po%3DLVI%26ps%3D63%26clkid%3D400428982666329611), so you can tune in at the end to see what the max is that people are willing to pay.
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Houdini103126 Elite user 407 Posts
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You know what commanding the best big auction site prices comes down to???
***Drum role please*** Get ready... TIMING!!! There is one who tracks pricing who would be best to comment including -/+ outliers. |
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med_doc7 New user 54 Posts
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I have tracked the selling price of Tenyo items for the last 2 years. I can tell you that there is tremendous fluctuation of price, which usually defies explanation, other than as Houdini put it quite well-timing. Would be glad to share further details if asked.
Cheers, Dave |
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stereo Inner circle France - Paris 1455 Posts
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I simply think that there is lot ebay user that cheat and bids on their own auction and after just send second chance offer. I would mention no names but it's pretty easy to guess by looking at the details of the auction and bidders are.
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Nicolino Inner circle 2893 Posts
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Yes, I discussed this with Tom as well, and you're right about it.
Unfortunately.., 
The Mati Envelope
A brandnew peek device for the working mentalist! Chance's Token Tarot cards in a scenic piece of mystery..... |
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med_doc7 New user 54 Posts
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Stereo makes a good point, referring to a practice called Shill bidding, artificially increasing the price of an item by bidding on the item yourself or having your friends do it. I think that this does in fact happen on ebay; however, to be honest- I think it happens very infrequently. It is illegal to shill bid on ebay and even more important (at least in the United States), it is in fact a crime of fraud-and one that carries legal consequences.
I think that most times, honestly, people way overbid and overpay for their items. Sellers often overestimate what they believe to be the value of a given item and this sometimes gives the false impression that an item is worth more than its actual value. Basic economics stipulates that the value of an item is governed by supply and demand and Tenyo is actually not unlike any other collectible product on the market. Ultimately the value of a given item is determined by the buyer or buyers alone. Interestingly, I have seen several examples of a seller selling an item using "buy-it-now" instead of auctioning off the item and ultimately not selling the item at this price. The seller then relists the item but instead auctions it off. To my surprise, many times, the item will sell for more than the original buy-it-now price, even, which seems to defy explanation. But what in fact takes place, is that when a product is auctioned off, a bidding atmosphere is created, thereby driving up the price from one bidder to another. Each is bidding on only one of the given item and while bidding, can artificially raise the price-especially if the starting price is low. This does not always happen, but I have seen this happen quite often in various collectible markets-not just tenyo. Economics is always of interest and the markets that drive people to buy at a given price never ceases to amaze. Cheers. |
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Houdini103126 Elite user 407 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-06-04 15:38, stereo wrote: Quote:
On 2011-06-04 15:55, Nicolino wrote: I agree with both of you. "Shill Bidding" is an unfortunate occurrence and very easy to bypass. The technical obstacles put in place are effective, but... Outside of cheating (which shill bidding clearly is and eBay forbids it), I have found that timing your listing according to eBay completed items searches and current auctions is the best way to fetch the most for your items. Personally, I prefer to purchase from reputable sellers such as Nicolino and/or trade. |
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Houdini103126 Elite user 407 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-06-04 16:20, med_doc7 wrote: Fascinating analysis. I concur on all accounts. I think people are basically honest, a small cluster are dishonest, and a few are beyond reproach. Your "BIN" analysis is really interesting since BINs typically eclipse auction closings due to "instant gratification". I think BINs work as well as they do for the same reason we continue to shop at retail outlets. We know we can get just about anything cheaper online, but it's in our face, we want the instant gratification, so we purchase the item. Notwithstanding sometimes you need something faster than it can be shipped, you don't have the advantage of say "trying it out/on", but many times, we can wait, and we don't. I believe BINs are just the same but a virtual example. Many people don't want to deal with a long bidding life cycle. Many fear losing auctions and aren't aware of certain legal tricks that can largely mitigate this, some just see it as in a store and buy it. Fascinating. |
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stereo Inner circle France - Paris 1455 Posts
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I never had chance when I choose to make my item in regular auction, so I preafer buy it now prices even if there is long time to sell. And then I always a lot regret selling my tricks, but I am often obliged for financial reasons so I have put the hight price for not too much regret. There is also the problem of exchange rate and big price in $ is finally less money in euro.
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towledge Veteran user 373 Posts
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This is a great thread. I too feel there are two prevalent things going on in the Tenyo/ Ebay world.
1) As mentioned Shill bidding...I have received several second chance offers, seen many duplicate items supposedly ended then re-listed days or weeks later...we're talking apparently "rare vintage" Tenyo items folks right? Are there really all these duplicate "rare" items out there??? I have also seen several auctions close where the high bidder had a 100% or nearly 100% 30 day buying history with the seller. 2) Items listed (or even on-line store bought) as "MINT BNIP", actually showing scratches and wear marks when removed from fully or partially split open Tenyo packages. If an item was used, even casually and put back in package, the description should state such. I accept that some of these Tenyo items command high prices but I do feel that some, some sellers need to clean up their act a bit. |
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Houdini103126 Elite user 407 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-06-04 20:12, towledge wrote: There aren't that many "RARE" Tenyo items to go around. There are a few individuals however that have some "stock" and once it's gone, it's gone. The point here is that in a year from now, it might be that something that was relatively plentiful becomes tough to find. I believe that feeBay has demonstrated this, at one time you could get "The Haunting" very cheaply, now look at it. All in all, there are a few dealers on eBay that I won't deal with, but we are a tight nit community here, many Tenyo collectors don't know any better. This is one of the reasons I started a Tenyo forum. I wanted to start a marketplace where known collectors and dealers could transact sans the shenanigans. A fair price could be stipulated, an agreement made, and a transaction completed. Simple. Furthermore, this keeps prices sane for the true collector rather than paying an "Excitement" tax due to the nature of bidding. Your whole point about BNIP is an excellent one and has been bothering me since I began collecting. A simple UIP (used in package) would suffice. I think you'll find Doc's analysis has revealed that there isn't too much difference in price whether BNIP or UIP and I concur. I have experienced this first hand. Good stuff. |
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med_doc7 New user 54 Posts
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Houdini is correct. One would think that a brand new in package mint item (for the sake of argument let us assume that the phrase "mint BNIP" really means new and in immaculate condition as Towledge is absolutely correct in his analysis) would sell for a higher price and be of greater value than a used such item. As frustrating and as perplexing as this sounds, this is absolutely anything but the case on ebay. Used, not new items, have many times sold for greater than a similar BNIP item, albeit at different times in the marketplace. I have collected data on various collectibles (not just Tenyo) on ebay and the results are fascinating.
Did you know that this past year, the week after Christmas was a good week to buy Tenyo as a buyer but not a seller? The sellers needed money that week after a spending spree around Christmas time and needed to recover some currency to pay back Holiday debts. There were also fewer buyers in the marketplace because most buyers were also strapped for cash, fewer competitors vying for the same product bidding on a given item (good for buyers, bad for sellers) and so this tipped the scales microeconomically speaking towards greater supply and lower demand-thereby lowering market price for the item. I know Stereo is bewildered that during a three day period he sold a new BNIP Trio Cigarette for $42 using auction style and 3 days later he utilized a Buy-it-Now format and collected $99 from a buyer. So where was the $99 buyer three days prior, because $57 USD is a large disparity. Unless I am completely off base, I would be surprised if the same individual is responsible for both purchases. Please let me know if I am wrong Stereo. So in 3 days-Trio Cigarette more than doubled in value or so it seems? Did the first buyer get the deal of a lifetime? Did the second buyer overpay? Did both occur? Obviously this is up for debate, but there are countless examples of this scenario transpiring quite often. I have conducted several transactions over the past year with several Tenyo enthusiasts on this forum and it is completely different in a very good way as Houdini also states. A price is stated and/or negotiated and one can then decide whether it is worth it or not. For me, I needed/wanted some items and especially wanted data. I'm a nerd and love all things data. Wanted to see if prices were fair/ or unfair, similar/ or different than ebay, condition as stated/ or different than that presented etc. I was impressed with every transaction that I conducted with every member with whom I interacted. Everyone is a class act, which says a lot. Anyway, enough rambling by me. I have been a member since 2003 (even though it says new member) and have kept mostly quiet on this forum, but decided it is more fun to speak up since I think economics as it relates to Tenyo and other collectibles is quite interesting. Great discussion everyone. Keep it going! |
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Houdini103126 Elite user 407 Posts
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One stat I'm very interested in is closing by country of origin.
This is nebulous so let me be specific. Let's say the item location by seller is in Europe. I'm interested to understand if more Europeans are buying European offered Tenyo or is it Americans? Of course it could be any other country, but I'm interested in Europe and American data. Since the buyer name is masked, this becomes difficult to quantify but is nonetheless interesting. As JM has said before, luxury items seem to defy a bad economy across the board, Tenyo or otherwise. If it's something people want, bad economy or not, people will buy it. To Doc's point, while the above is true, tracking economic data by such attributes as a "Spend" Holiday like Christmas really seems to shed light on just how FANATICAL (I think we forget this is shortened to FAN) people are about specific collectibles. Tenyo is a constant interest item, I can't say the same is true for TICKLE-ME-ELMO, something that might be outrageously priced at XMAS but is hard to give away during the rest of the year (sans NOV/DEC). This is speculative since I don't track TICKLE-ME-ELMO, but I think the point is valid. Insert whatever seasonal whim item you like in place of TICKLE-ME-ELMO, point is, everything gets driven up during XMAS, but would a Tenyo Tunnel of Darkness fetch $340ish then? I doubt it ;-). Staying on point, and outliers aside, a grouping of items sell more at different times than at others as Doc points out. What about external influence trending? I would love to see the spike in Tenyo prices when a major televised Magic show went on air. Fascinating. |
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stereo Inner circle France - Paris 1455 Posts
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Fo my sales 90% of buyer are Amercian.
Yes for sure the Trio Cigarette example is very good !! For the regular bid there is 18 ebay members who follow the auction, but only 3 or 4 who really make bids. Finally the final price was very very very low 42 Usd = 28euros (and 28 Euros it's like 28$ here in france !!). And 3 days after when I put the second one it was sold almost immediately (while I chose a sale on 30 days imagining that I'd probably do not sell it...) It's just crazy. And finaly, once again choosing the regular bids I have lost money ... but we always hope for a miracle ... But I think the most amazing example is the Mini-morphosis which was sold over $ 350 ... I also had the impression that the blog had an influence on the sales this year, but I do can be ideas. Everytime a Tenyo item pop on ebay I have many visit for the trick in question on the blog. (you can also see all the statistics by clicking on the meter at the bottom of the blog page) |
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Houdini103126 Elite user 407 Posts
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Stereo,
I DEFINITELY think the blog has an influence, as well as Magic Patagonia's videos, I don't care what anyone says on this, it's benefiting us all in many ways! I hate to tell you "I told you so" on Trio Cigarette. You kept telling me it's only worth $10 Euro and I kept telling you it's worth A LOT more. I think now we can agree I was right. Even if you consider $99 US an outlier, it's still worth a lot more than $10 Euro. Believe it or not, I think a lot of Tenyo is coming into its own. People never get sick of it, the stuff is too cool. Tricks from the 70s amaze today just as they did then. Just goes to show you that a good idea is a good idea, time can often be moot in such matters with the exception of progress. I'm betting that Tenyo only continues to rise in value, as the 70s become the 60s in age, you can bet the prices are going to continue to amaze us. |
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Nicolino Inner circle 2893 Posts
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Very interesting thread!
Let me add some comments and impression of mine... Quote:
There aren't that many "RARE" Tenyo items to go around. There are a few individuals however that have some "stock" and once it's gone, it's gone. A couple of years ago, I was offered a huge lot of BNIP tricks (and yes, those who know me can confirm that my new sales items deserve to wear the "BN" in BNIP!) from a magic shop clearance. I realised this was a rare opportunity but nonetheless these boxes full of vintage Tenyo were very expensive for me. However, after some consideration I took the plunge and invested in them, realizing that they would not only contribute to my collecting passion but also that they might raise in value in the years to come. One year ago, I had lots of Metal Matrimony and Mind Scanner, Mini Morphosis and Eye of the Idol. I sold them for fair prices but nowadays I would have "earned" 50% - 70% more...
Quote:
On 2011-06-05 00:17, Houdini103126 wrote: My impression is that the main market is US (north and south) and Asia. Professional German sellers who want to maximize their sales therefore only list their auctions on eBay.com. On the other hand, sellers from Germany that only ship within their country rarely get high prices. A few days ago, a like-new crossroads (I know the seller) sold for EUR 42, I'm sure it would have been much higher on an internationally market... Quote:
On 2011-06-04 16:20, med_doc7 wrote: Yes, it's a simple psychological thing - slowly raising in price and being not alone in bidding creates a feeling of comfort: you are not the only one with your obsession, "even the others would pay that much", "it's only some dollars more I'll put in now, who cares?" and so on... This felt "security" of not doing the wrong thing lets many auctions end up higher than they would the classic way with a fixed buy-it-now price. Besides, during the course of an auction, you get familiarized with the item, you recieve emails when another bid has topped yours, you see it on your ewatch list...it's on your mind and after 7 or 10 days of mental occupation with it you don't want to let go. Do you see my points?
The Mati Envelope
A brandnew peek device for the working mentalist! Chance's Token Tarot cards in a scenic piece of mystery..... |
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med_doc7 New user 54 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-06-05 02:48, Nicolino wrote: . Nicolino is absolutely right. Although we all do not enjoy the fees that ebay charges and would rather see it go away, ebay does help market your products. As Nicolino mentions a potential buyer is emailed if he/she is overbid, if he/she is watching an item that is ending soon etc. This will aids in the marketing of a product and helps create the impetus to drive up a price because should you have forgotten about the item and opened your email, you will now be made aware of the item once more and can now take action. We all talk about the low outliers, but there are plenty of high outliers as well. On an unfortunate note, honestly, I have to say that I am a bit suspicious of one particular seller on ebay who sells Tenyo and who I do not believe utilizes this forum, but I still will keep the person anonymous. It is a bold statement to make, but I believe that there may has been some bid tampering and shill bidding with several of the auctions that were conducted. I cannot prove this without a doubt, but the data strongly suggests it, especially given that there are a few buyers that were frequenting the products being offered, if you know what I mean. Too many bids with the same individuals; too many won auctions with the same individuals; strange bidding patterns etc. I need a bit more data and then I may report this to ebay for investigation. That's all I'll say about that. |
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stereo Inner circle France - Paris 1455 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-06-05 01:57, Houdini103126 wrote: What ? lol what anyone says on this ? |
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med_doc7 New user 54 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-06-05 09:52, stereo wrote: I think the blog contributes to the Tenyo enthusiast's overall awareness of Tenyo products. I don't have to tell you about your own site, but prior to its creation by you, it was often difficult to see what a given item even looked like if you didn't own it-but on your site there are myriads of photos, descriptions, reviews etc. Many of us had these Tenyo items as kids and may have "misplaced them" or in my case had Mom throw them away after I left for college because "she was doing me a favor." Your site gives everyone a way to recollect these items or gain a greater impression or appreciation if we so choose. It would be difficult to measure if the site has had any direct effect on vintage Tenyo prices and value but I venture to guess (and it is only a guess) that it increases buyer's awareness of products and may indeed cause more buyers to enter into the market for a given discontinued item- which would in fact, raise the price overtime due to supply and demand dynamics. Nicolino was well ahead of everyone, investing in large numbers of BNIP discontinued products, which may have seemed and was certainly risky at one time, there is no doubt. But like any other investment, the more volatile the market and the more risky the investment-the greater chance of a huge return if the value increases. Nice job Nicolino, you should be commended! |
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Posted: Jun 4, 2011 12:55 am 